*Spotlight:*/arctic

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Spotlight: Arctic - Oceans Futures - WWF

Spotlight: Arctic - Oceans Futures - WWF | WWF / Oceans Futures

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The Arctic Ocean is experiencing the effects of climate change at an alarming pace. Although climate change is wreaking havoc across all latitudes, some estimates claim that the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world – a phenomenon referred to as ["Arctic amplification"](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3). The geopolitical uncertainties associated with this region – namely the overlapping territorial claims, presence of an under-regulated high seas zone, and growing interest in exploiting newly-accessible ocean resources – act to compound the ecological threats this region is facing. These challenges will only intensify as sea ice continues to melt, ocean temperatures warm, and fish stocks abandon their historic habitat ranges in favor of [newly-habitable](https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12027) and unexploited Arctic waters. Additionally, untapped resources such as oil and gas deposits, deep sea minerals, and emergent shipping lanes could trigger a “gold rush” mentality. These emerging threats are particularly salient for the [Arctic's Indigenous population](https://arctic-council.org/explore/topics/arctic-peoples/) – comprising 10% of all Arctic inhabitants – due in part to their disproportionate susceptibility to the impacts of environmental change and reliance on now-shifting marine resources.

Introduction

The Arctic is a geopolitically complex region. There are eight Arctic states. The five littoral Arctic states (meaning at least part of the country borders the Arctic ocean) are the United States (Alaska), Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark (Greenland). The other three Arctic states are Iceland, Sweden, and Finland. The Arctic lacks an internationally-defined legal definition. However, the most common geographic definition comprises the area above the Arctic Circle. More specifically: on land, the tree line is considered the southern boundary of the Arctic; at sea, the boundary is approximately the southern extent of sea ice. The Arctic encompasses about 40 million km2 including the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the five littoral states and the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO), which is a High Seas area (i.e. not claimed by any one nation). As of now, there is no commercial fishing permitted in the CAO under a multilateral moratorium that extends until 2037. 

Fishing is, however, permitted within the national boundaries of Arctic nations, and by Indigenous groups that hold historic rights to engage in subsistence activities in Arctic regions. Climate change is likely to amplify the frequency of fishing activities along with other extractive opportunities that will flourish as sea ice retreats and new extractive areas become accessible. Conflict risk is a growing concern, and the systems currently in place to govern the Arctic region are likely unprepared to deal with these emerging threats. 

Species such as Pacific salmon, Pacific cod, and king crab contribute significantly to economic and food security in Arctic nations. Climate change is expected to alter the distributions of these species, potentially pushing them out of their historic waters and into the increasingly-fraught high seas where access, safety, and sustainability are uncertain. A warming Arctic also opens the door for aquaculture development, increasing potential spatial conflicts over access and rights to ocean areas. However, aquaculture growth could also potentially address some of the food security concerns for Arctic peoples and provide new economic opportunities if implemented and managed effectively.

Governing the Arctic

The [Arctic Council](https://arctic-council.org/about/#:~:text=The%20Arctic%20Council%20was%20established,States%20signed%20the%20Ottawa%20Declaration.) (AC) was established in 1996 and is the foremost organization in Arctic governance and Arctic-specific international decision-making. The AC was established as a forum, not an international organization, and thus lacks the ability to enforce or implement legally-binding agreements. Therefore, implementation authority in the Arctic tends to fall to the individual Arctic states. Membership in the AC is reserved for the eight Arctic States. Permanent Participants (PPs) are organizations representing either individuals or groups of Indigenous Peoples living in Arctic States, and the States must consult with PPs before making final decisions by consensus. Observer status is reserved for non-Arctic States, intergovernmental and interparliamentary organizations, and NGOs that the Council deems relevant. There are currently 38 observer organizations and States (including China, Japan, South Korea, and others). Other security-focused Arctic governing bodies include the Arctic Security Forces Roundtable (est. 2010) and the Arctic Coast Guard Forum (est. 2015). 

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Fisheries conflict

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The Arctic is a potential hotbed of future ocean conflict for a variety of reasons. Emerging fisheries, territorial disputes, and ongoing interest in oil and gas exploration are combining with the weak governance and ecological sensitivity of the region to make for a potentially volatile future for the far north.

Although there are competing claims to Arctic resources, actual militarized disputes have thus far been rare. One example of Arctic maritime conflict occurred in the 1980s and 1990s over the commercially-important Pacific salmon stock. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures caused shifts in Pacific salmon migration patterns between the US and Canada, leading to conflict between these usually-friendly nations. Oceanographic changes caused salmon to alter their normal migratory patterns, and Canadian and American fishers responded by “intercepting” the migrating fish and throwing off the cross-border balance that had previously existed. Alaskan fishermen caught salmon bound for British Columbia, and Canadian fishers intercepted salmon returning to Alaskan freshwaters for their breeding season.

It was determined, however, that Alaskan fishermen intercepted 2.4 million more salmon than Canadian fishers in the year 1985, with an aggregate imbalance of 35 million fish during this period in favor of American fisheries. This conflict spurred the ratification of the Canada-United States Pacific Salmon Treaty in 1985, which aimed to restore equity between US and Canadian fisheries and to prevent future overfishing of the stock. Conflict nonetheless persisted for the following decade, costing both nations significantly and harming the shared resource on which both countries rely.

Future conflicts are highly uncertain, but this fish-specific example illustrates the fragility of the region and the ability of marine resource depletion to be a significant driver of unrest.

The Future of Arctic Fisheries

The environmental changes that we are seeing in the Arctic are having profound and novel impacts on the delicate Arctic marine system.

The seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum extent in February and March, and its minimum extent in September. [Satellite imagery](https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48539) revealed that the 2022 sea ice extent ranked among the lowest on record, continuing a long-term downward trend in Arctic ice cover. During this low-ice summer season only the Barents and East Greenland Seas maintained relatively normal ice levels. This continued diminishment of sea ice extent has particular salience for the [Northwest Passage](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.02.002) – a commercially important Arctic transit route – which is becoming increasingly accessible to tourism, shipping, and research vessels. 

Beyond the Northwest Passage, Arctic-wide ice cover changes have led to an increase in  maritime ship traffic, foreboding potentially severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts for Arctic inhabitants. The Northeast Passage – a currently-inaccessible shipping lane that traverses Norwegian and Russian Arctic waters – is 37% shorter than current shipping routes such as the Suez Canal. 

Warming sea surface temperatures are also altering fishing seasons as ice melts faster and reforms more slowly. For some Indigenous communities and small-scale fisheries, this is shortening the time frame in which fishing can take place.These shorter fishing seasons limit the window of opportunity for fishers and increase the risk of life-threatening accidents on the ice, often resulting in food and livelihood insecurity.  

Importantly, these same oceanographic changes - namely decreased ice cover and milder ocean conditions - can benefit those fishing operations that do not rely on traditional ice fishing techniques and can instead utilize larger industrial fishing vessels. For these larger operations, decreases in sea ice and warmer temperatures are lengthening fishing seasons and opening up new grounds. Paired with the poleward shift of several species into previously-unoccupied areas, there is potential for a boom in fishing operations for commercially valuable species, likely to the detriment of small-scale Indigenous communities that reside in the Arctic region.

Spotlight:
arctic

summary

Introduction

Governing the Arctic

Fisheries conflict

Climate Impact on Fisheries

The Future of Arctic Fisheries

Spotlight:arctic

summary

Introduction

Governing the Arctic

Fisheries conflict

Climate Impact on Fisheries

The Future of Arctic Fisheries

Spotlight:
arctic